Previewing, and predicting, the EURO 2022 quarter-finals
Featuring: Ellen White slide tackles, Nicole Billa lay-offs, Sweden corners, and Mark Parsons’ sleeves.
England v Spain
I think this is a difficult game to predict, because there is a huge amount of uncertainty. Will Sarina Wiegman be back on the touchline for England? How do Spain cope with what will probably be a big, passionate pro-England support? Will the underdog tag help Spain, will the favourite tag hinder England? It’s impossible to know.
My guess is that the first goal could be more important than usual, in that it swings an otherwise even tie towards a 3–0 thrashing one way or the other. (England panic at the idea of failing in front of their own fans on an unusually large stage, or Spain lose hope having already lost their key player Alexia Putellas and experienced being unable to turn things around against Germany in the group stage — once a boxer has spat the gumshield out once, it’s much easier to do it again the next time things get difficult…)
Anyway, on to what we do know, at least roughly. Which is that
One: England are good at applying high pressure. Ellen White splits the centre-backs while closing down, cutting out the sideways pass along the back line. This cuts the pitch in half and makes the opponent’s build-up play more predictable, enabling more commitment to pressing in midfield. White is not the fastest, but she is incredibly consistent with her positioning and has a good work rate when it comes to closing down. She might even put in the odd slide tackle, and cajoles those behind her to join in. Literally, she leads from the front. Her teammates just need to back her up.
Two: Spain are one of the best passing teams at this tournament. Their centre-backs are comfortable on the ball, and capable playing long accurately. And their midfielders can keep the ball under pressure, with good close control plus (crucially) the ability to work space for themselves with a quick turn or a bit of skill. There is also the fact that Aitana Bonmati, Patri Guijarro, Mariona Caldentey all have a good mutual understanding. They play with each other week-in, week-out, and know how and when to show for each other to combine.
With all of this in mind, the early going will be key from a tactical perspective (first 20 minutes or so). If England, roared on by the home crowd, can get their high press working and intercept a few balls high up, maybe they can get a goal in transition before Spain get into a flow. If not, and Spain play out of that pressure or simply ride the wave with good individual defending to make up for errors in possession, then Spain can gradually assert themselves in terms of territory and possession while England’s pressing intensity fades.
The dynamic of the game is very important. If England have a lead to defend, Spain will find it tough. Primarily because Spain usually take far too many touches and passes in the final third. They want to walk the ball into the net: see the Denmark slog. But if the game remains even, Spain can be a bit more relaxed, play their normal game.
Either way, this will not be like Spain v Denmark. England will not sit in a low block, pack the defence, because expectation does not allow for this kind of ‘negative’ mentality. They are compelled to play a more open game, and leave spaces between and behind. Spain can find them. And as the game goes on, they can start to look for the runs behind of Aitana, Mariona, Lucia Garcia etc. England’s back line is untested at dealing with this, and in my opinion very reliant on the recovery speed of Leah Williamson, Rachel Daly and Lucy Bronze (as opposed to organisation and stepping up as a line, playing for offsides).
I feel that recency bias plays a big part in the odds going in. England’s win over Norway (partly due to them being good, partly due to Norway being defensively shambolic, partly due to randomness), has led to them being overestimated. People have forgotten the tense, 1–0 win over Austria in the opener. By contrast, Spain looked ordinary in their last group game against Denmark, pushing some to underestimate them. (Forgetting that Spain gave Germany two goals- one from a calamitous Sandra Panos error, one from a set piece, and that otherwise they looked very fluent for most of the first two group games.)
Again there is a lot of uncertainty going into this game, so the only thing I’m confident about is that it could go either way, and by a significant amount. But I tend towards the side of Spain. They may not be ruthless in front of goal, but England lacks the counter threat of Pernille Harder that Denmark had. So, admittedly on a bit of a whim, I will say Spain, by anything from 1–0 to 3–0.
Germany v Austria
Austria’s defensive organisation has really impressed me at this tournament. It’s not just that they are compact and press with good timing and intensity, but that they can adapt. They have defended in different ways, and can change during games from high press to mid block to low block. They also have a good goalkeeper in Manuela Zinsberger, who has the ability to turn a game from 0–3 to 0–0. She can keep them in it, even if they are on the ropes tactically speaking.
What Zinsberger isn’t so good at, is dominating her box. And Germany are versatile from an attacking perspective. They aren’t obsessed with short passing, like Spain. They are willing to go direct if necessary, and in Alexandra Popp they have an effective target to hit with long balls and high crosses. Germany also have a powerful midfield, and they can win the battle for second balls through out-muscling in 1v1s or quick counter-pressing. They pretty much overwhelmed Denmark this way. On top of all that, they have players like Lina Magull and Sara Dabritz who will get the ball out of their feet and shoot from range every now and then (not guaranteed to score, but keeps the opponent guessing and can lead to deflections and/or corners).
It’s also worth mentioning that Austria lack explosiveness on the break. Nicole Billa is a good striker who is absolutely superb at making the ball stick and feeding support runners. Honestly, I can’t remember her misplacing a lay-off, even with Millie Bright kicking her in the ankles.
But Billa isn’t a threat in space — she won’t exploit the gap between Germany’s back line and goalkeeper or the gaps between defenders…they will be too quick for her, or just as quick. So Austria need to build the attack up more patiently, with passing into Billa’s feet (like Italy/Juve have to do with Girelli), followed by lay-offs. This buys the wingers and midfielders more time to get up and running, which they need because, like I say, they aren’t explosively fast either.
Germany won’t be taken aback by Austria’s counter-attacks, and they won’t stick to short passes under pressure if it isn’t working. They will play around Austria, or play over the top, or hit Popp and run off of her. They will cross it in, and I imagine the sheer volume of German attacks will be a challenge for Austria.
Still, I don’t see Austria conceding loads of clear chances. It’s entirely possible that, minute-by-minute, they grind through the game, take it into extra time, frustrate Germany, and maybe nick it with a bit of luck or a penalty shoot-out. In fact, I’d go so far as to say that it is within the realm of possibilities that Austria ‘does a Greece 2004’. But for that to happen a lot has to go right, starting with this monumental task in the quarter-finals.
Germany and Austria know each other well. They all play in the same league! So there shouldn’t be too many surprises and I expect a cagey, tight game. Not one for the purists, probably. Austria can win, and might make for a nice bet for those of a betting persuasion. But Germany should know what they’re getting into here, and should have enough to get a goal on a cross, a transition, or a set play. And that one goal should be enough for them to win. So I’ll say Germany 1–0 Austria (and if you’re going to take a hay fever tablet before this one, avoid the ones that make you drowsy…they will not be necessary).
Sweden v Belgium
This will be my shortest preview of the four.
Belgium like to play out from the back, but aren’t particularly assured and can cough up the ball in their own half. Also, of the three goals they conceded in the group stage, two came in the second phase after a corner.
Now to Sweden. They are one of the most organised defensive teams at this tournament, and are incredibly dangerous on the counter-attack. Also, of the eight goals they scored in the group stage, four came from set pieces.
I expect Sweden to win the ball high up the field quite often, to threaten on counter-attacks, and from set pieces. They have a lot of height in their team, especially when they play their Stina-Lina-Frida frontline (Blackstenius, Hurtig, Rolfo). They are also well-organised in these situations, always with a good ball-striker like Filippa Angeldahl or Hanna Bennison ready to pounce on loose balls after the corner is half-cleared and shoot.
Basically, my prediction is that Sweden win, and that it’s not close.
France v Netherlands
France have some of the best combination play at this tournament. Even with star striker Marie-Antoinette Katoto out injured, Melvine Malard came in against Iceland and played as if she had been playing №9 all her career (she hasn’t — this past season, she was out on the left wing at Lyon). Out wide is where France can do the most damage here, though.
Kadidiatou Diani and Delphine Cascarino are exceptional dribblers. Diani has statistically never been knocked off the ball in her entire career…probably, while Cascarino goes from standing to sprinting like someone flicked a switch. Then there are the support runs of full-backs Eve Perisset and Sakina Karchaoui. Karchaoui is a brilliant dribbler herself, capable of using both feet. The rotations and one/two-touch play between wingers and full-backs is very effective. Throw all of this in with the fact that the Netherlands’ full-backs have looked defensively extremely shaky all tournament, and I find it hard to see how the Dutch defence will cope.
And yet there is an element of danger in confidently predicting a Netherlands game right now. Mark Parsons is in his first tournament as manager, and we don’t know what ideas he might have up his sleeve. This is a Dutch team in transition, and that transition is almost happening in the middle of this tournament. Youngsters like Brugts, Leuchters, Van Domselaar, Casparij, Pelova have all shown some exciting glimpses of their capability. Then there’s the fact that Lieke Martens is out, and we don’t know if Vivianne Miedema will be back to lead the line, and that this may provoke Parsons into some completely new formation or tactical approach.
If Parsons changes because of the absence of key players, that might work better (hard to imagine it being worse), and would at least throw a tactical spanner in the works. France are a team that talks a lot about automatisms (rehearsed patterns of play), and automatisms don’t react well to opposition unpredictability. Like someone reading an old map that doesn’t reflect the current landscape, these teams can get lost quickly when the opponent adopts new tactics. Suddenly the patterns they practised don’t reflect the defensive approach they are up against.
The stage is set for the Netherlands to spring a surprise, but that depends on Parsons. My instinct, based on watching his Portland Thorns and Netherlands sides — which were/are pretty consistent in terms of shape, selection, style — is that he won’t change formation or style of play, or at least he won’t change it enough to divert the likely outcome of this game. And the usual Dutch approach of being expansive will not work — it will leave their defenders too isolated and France have a big advantage in their frontline versus the Dutch back line, specifically in the wide areas. To be honest, even if Parsons were to do something strange tactically, the French have plenty of experienced players who can improvise. I expect them to score two or more goals. That should be enough to see them through.
